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Preparing the North America of Tomorrow

Likelihood of Canadian Provinces Joining the US

Political Leaning:
Democratic
Republican
Swing State
Non-voting

Total Population

12.3 million

Representatives

14

Senators

8

Electoral Votes

22

Province Details

Click on a province to view its details.

Impact on U.S. Politics

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Disclaimer: The likelihood percentages are based on Grok AI's deep research analysis. It assumes proposed tarrif levels continue and that the U.S. makes a meaningful effort to acquire some Canadian provinces, not necessarily the entire country. It's loosly based on current political topics and beliefs, but is not scientific.

This visualization explores the hypothetical scenario of certain Canadian provinces joining the United States. The political leanings shown are based on historical voting patterns, demographics, and economic factors.

In this scenario, assuming the U.S. acquires several provinces, only the larger provinces would qualify for statehood based on population requirements. This would likely result in new states with a mix of political leanings: Democratic-leaning provinces like British Columbia and Quebec, Republican-leaning provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan, and key Swing States like Manitoba and Ontario. The smaller territories (like Yukon or Northwest Territories) would become non-voting U.S. territories similar to Puerto Rico. The new states would add significant representatives to the House, senators, and electoral votes to the Electoral College.

While British Columbia would likely become a reliably blue state and Alberta and Saskatchewan would likely be solidly red, both Manitoba and Ontario would emerge as critical battleground states. With Ontario's substantial 20 electoral votes and Manitoba's 4 electoral votes, these swing states could dramatically alter the balance of power in close presidential elections and potentially decide outcomes in the Electoral College.

★ The Yankee Chaos Simulator ★

Test alternate scenarios to find out if Canadian provinces might join the U.S. by setting your own factors in this reality altering tool.

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Increases tariffs on Canadian goods, encouraging provinces like Alberta to join as exports get costlier. At 50%, trade costs spike for export-heavy regions.

25%
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Sets tariff duration, making joining the U.S. more appealing as strain grows. At 20 years, provinces face peak pressure but may find other trade options.

4 years
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Chooses the U.S. ruling party and encourages alignment with like-minded provinces.

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If Conservatives win, provinces become less likely to join the US (-1% to most, -5% to western provinces). If Liberals win, western provinces become more likely to join (+10% to Alberta, +3% to BC, SK, MB).

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Explores a what-if where provinces rely more on U.S. trade, pushing them to join. At 100%, full theoretical dependency creates strong pressure to integrate.

20%
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An energy crisis draws U.S. interest to Alberta's oil, encouraging joining. At 100%, global shortages make its resources critical to the U.S.

10%
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Political chaos in Canada drives provinces to the U.S.—at 100%, the Canadian federal government effectively ceases to exist.

20%
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U.S. propaganda promotes joining, but is less effective up to 50% (half impact). Beyond 50%, impact increases more sharply. At 100%, intense efforts significantly influence views.

0%
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If one province joins, others may follow due to shared economic ties. At 100%, a strong trend pushes all regions to consider joining the U.S.

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Likelihood of Joining