Wikileaks and The Best of Cablegate

Cablegate.Wikileaks.org / Good read. Would've been better with pictures.

Intrigue. Corruption. Geopolitics. Petty condemnations. From the perspective of a political scientist, there is a lot to like about the most recent Wikileaks fiasco which saw Australian activist Julian Assange publish thousands of the U.S. government’s secret and confidential documents. There’s a debate going on right now as to whether or not these leaks will have a significant impact on America’s relations with other nations in both the short and long term.  I suspect at the very least, it will strain tensions for a little while, especially in the Middle East where the local governments have been exposed as being more closely allied with the United States than they’d prefer to let on (ie. Yemen).

But these are not the Afghanistan equivalent of the Pentagon Papers, not based on what we’ve seen so far anyway.  Rather they show an uncensored and frank discussion of geopolitics, often from the perspective of foreign nations.  If Assange’s mission is to end the war in Afghanistan as he’s publicly stated, he’s clearly failed.  So far, he’s succeeded in doing little more than annoying various heads of state.

It should be noted that these files only include confidential and secret documents; there are no top secret files which is (officially) the highest level of sensitivity. You won’t find discussions of covert CIA operations, toppled governments, or conspiracies.  Still, there’s still a lot of interesting content.

I’ll leave it to others to discuss the ethical and practical implications of the leaks.  My interest, and I suspect yours as well, is in the gossip driven “nitty gritty” that shapes government politics and the world.  Generally, the content is anything but light hearted; much of it is disturbing and grim.

I’ve compiled a short list of the most interesting parts of the leak both from my own readings and from published news reports, but much of this you won’t see reported anywhere else.  In general, this information requires some background knowledge, but I’ve chosen to keep my commentary to a minimum, least this become my dissertation.  All of the indented comments are direct quotes from U.S. government employees who wrote the cables released by Wikileaks.

Russia Considered "Virtual Mafia State"
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/247712

Grinda suggested that there are two reasons to worry about the Russian mafia. First, it exercises "tremendous control" over certain strategic sectors of the global economy, such as aluminum. He made a passing remark that the USG has a strategic problem in that the Russian mafia is suspected of having a sizable investment in XXXXXXXXXXXX 6. (S//NF) The second reason is the unanswered question regarding the extent to which Russian PM Putin is implicated in the Russian mafia and whether he controls the mafia's actions. Grinda cited a "thesis" by Alexander Litvinenko, the former Russian intelligence official who worked on OC issues before he died in late 2006 in London from poisoning under mysterious circumstances, that the Russian intelligence and security services - Grinda cited the Federal Security Service (FSB), the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), and military intelligence (GRU) - control OC in Russia.

According to information he has received from intelligence services, witnesses and phone taps, certain political parties in Russia operate "hand in hand" with OC. For example, he argued that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was created by the KGB and its successor, the SVR, and is home to many serious criminals. Grinda further alleged that there are proven ties between the Russian political parties, organized crime and arms trafficking. Without elaborating, he cited the strange case of the "Arctic Sea" ship in mid-2009 as "a clear example" of arms trafficking.

As an example, he cited Kalashov, whom he said worked for Russian military intelligence to sell weapons to the Kurds to destabilize Turkey. Grinda claimed that the GOR takes the relationship with OC leaders even further by granting them the privileges of politics, in order to grant them immunity from racketeering charges.

Yemeni government agrees to cover up U.S. involvement in the country.
http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/10SANAA4.html

Saleh did not have any objection, however, to General Petraeus' proposal to move away from the use of cruise missiles and instead have U.S. fixed-wing bombers circle outside Yemeni territory, "out of sight," and engage AQAP targets when actionable intelligence became available. Saleh lamented the use of cruise missiles that are "not very accurate" and welcomed the use of aircraft-deployed precision-guided bombs instead.  "We'll continue saying the bombs are ours, not yours," Saleh said, prompting Deputy Prime Minister Alimi to joke that he had just "lied" by telling Parliament that the bombs in Arhab, Abyan, and Shebwa were American-made but deployed by the ROYG.

Saudi King recommends GPS tracking devices be implanted in Gitmo detainees.
http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/03/09RIYADH447.html#par10

“I've just thought of something," the King added, and proposed implanting detainees with an electronic chip containing information about them and allowing their movements to be tracked with Bluetooth.  This was done with horses and falcons, the King said.  [White House Counter Terrorism adviser John] Brennan replied, "horses don’t have good lawyers," and that such a proposal would face legal hurdles in the U.S., but agreed that keeping track of detainees was an extremely important issue that he would review with appropriate officials when he returned to the United States.

Saudi Arabia complains about the TSA and increased security measures.
http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/10RIYADH118.html

Saudi officials strenuously - and under instruction - complained about the continued negative effect of the recent Transportation Safety Administration (TSA) regulations that call for extra security screening for Saudi Arabia. 

The Saudi Foreign Minister will raise these concerns with the Secretary in London on January 27.  They noted that the Saudi public is increasingly upset by this, and does not understand why they were put in the same group with Cuba, which has prompted some Saudis to question how special their relationship with the United States really is.

Saudi Foreign Minister: Iran destined to get the bomb
http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10KUWAIT88.html

…many in Kuwait hoped a silent, targeted strike would take out the troublesome reactor and leave the region more relaxed.  He suggested that now, however, Iran might have multiple reactors and was so intent on achieving its nuclear goal that no matter what the West did, Iran would get the bomb, and any attempt to disrupt it militarily or through tough sanctions would go badly for the West.  He offered his analysis that "Iran is very different from Iraq; if the "Murshid" orders his people to do something (like revenge attacks across the Gulf, striking American interests as well as Arab), they will do it, to a person."

Kuwait: Ideology in Iran is more pervasive than religion, seeks to spread its influence to moderate countries.
http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10KUWAIT142.html

Interior Minister Shaykh Jaber suggested Iran is intent upon exporting its revolution and can only be deterred by force from achieving its nuclear ambitions; he characterized Iran as the "beating heart" of Islamic extremism, adding that even Palestinians now aspire to be Shi'a because they have bought Iranian "stories" about Shi'a being more prepared to "fight to the end" and stand up to Israel.  Now Iran is trying to infiltrate Egypt, exploiting poverty there.

Peace deal to create Palistine within reach, Kerry urges Israel cede Golan Heights, East Jerusalem
http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10DOHA70.html

According to the Amir, Hamas will accept the 1967 border with Israel, but will not say it publicly so as to lose popular Palestinian support.

Any negotiation has its limits, added Senator Kerry, and we know for the Palestinians that control of Al-Aqsa mosque and the establishment of some kind of capital for the Palestinians in East Jerusalem are not negotiable.

For the Israelis, the Senator continued, Israel's character as a Jewish state is not open for negotiation. The non-militarization of an eventual Palestinian state and its borders can nonetheless be resolved through negotiation.

Prince Andrew, Duke of York, charges that the U.S. doesn’t understand or value geopolitical positioning in the east.
http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2008/10/08BISHKEK1095.html

Prince Andrew reached out to the Ambassador with cordiality and respect, evidently valuing her insights. However, he reacted with almost neuralgic patriotism whenever any comparison between the United States and United Kingdom came up. For example, one British businessman noted that despite the “overwhelming might of the American economy compared to ours” the amount of American and British investment in Kyrgyzstan was similar. Snapped the Duke: “No surprise there. The Americans don’t understand geography. Never have. In the U.K., we have the best geography teachers in the world!”

Russia Agrees to limit arms deals to Iran in mixed play
http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/02/09MOSCOW405.html

Russian officials appear to have stepped back, at least temporarily, from announcing a delivery of the S-300's, but pressure will remain within the military and security services to move forward as much for financial reasons as for political or foreign policy considerations. The prospect of more constructive U.S.-Russian relations may have tempered the GOR response, but we will continue to be told that Russia retains its "right" to proceed with an arms sale that does not violate national or international regimes.  For better or for worse, the delivery of S-300's have become a barometer of our bilateral relations.

(Related Article: Russia agrees to scrap arms deal with Iran in exchange for Israeli technology)

Chinese Ambassador: Russia unstable, needs foreign policy stability to concentrate on domestic affairs
http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/09ASTANA982.html

[Chinese Ambassador] Guoping said that Russia is experiencing “severe difficulty” now because of the global financial crisis. He suggested that the government of Russia is eager to improve relations with the United States now because Moscow is concerned that the economic downturn will begin to affect the political stability of the country, “even the stability of the Kremlin.” Guoping said that Russia does not want or need any foreign policy problems right now; “they need to focus on their domestic, economic affairs.” Guoping also said that Russia would like more support from the United States for its insistence on a privileged sphere of influence in Central Asia, in exchange for greater cooperation in Afghanistan. “Russia is convinced that they must dominate Central Asia and the Caucasus. They believe they have vital, strategic, historical interests in the region,” Guoping said. When pressed by the Ambassador to express his own opinion, Guoping said, “I personally do not agree that Russia should be granted a special sphere of influence in the region, but that is their view.”

Guoping said that Russia owns and controls most of Central Asia’s pipelines, “but it cannot prevent the ultimate diversification of export routes.” He said that Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are close to Russia, but they nevertheless understand that they must seek and develop alternatives.  He predicted that [China] will soon “break the Russian monopoly” on the export of hydrocarbons from the region and said the oil and gas pipelines to China now under construction will be “very important” in that regard.

Chinese Ambassador: Russia will attempt to overthrow Georgian government
http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/09ASTANA982.html

On Georgia, Guoping said he expects Russia to use military force to overthrow Georgian President Saakashvili. He did not elaborate or offer any specifics, but merely observed that Russia has already established military bases in Abkhazia and South Ossetia and is likely to remain there for the foreseeable future. Guoping worked in Georgia for four years and understands well the history and culture of its people. He observed that South Ossetia has strong cultural ties to Russia, but said it is likely that the Ossetians will ultimately press for greater independence from Russian influence.

China Ministry of Foreign Affairs “scared to death” of Nancy Pelosi
http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/09ASTANA982.html

Without openly acknowledging or discussing the twentieth anniversary of the June 4, 1989, Tiananmen Square protests, [Chinese Ambassador] Guoping said the government was prepared, and also fearful, for the Speaker to raise human rights and democracy issues during her visit. “She had the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) scared to death on the eve of her visit,” Guoping said, half-jokingly.

Chinese prepared to support reunified Korea under Seoul control
http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10SEOUL272.html

Chun argued that, in the event of a North Korean collapse, China would clearly “not welcome” any U.S. military presence north of the DMZ. XXXXXXXXXXXX Chun XXXXXXXXXXXX  said the PRC would be comfortable with a reunified Korea controlled by Seoul and anchored to the United States in a “benign alliance” -- as long as Korea was not hostile towards China. Tremendous trade and labor-export opportunities for Chinese companies, Chun said, would also help salve PRC concerns about living with a reunified Korea. Chundismissed the prospect of a possible PRC military intervention in the event of a DPRK collapse, noting that China’s strategic economic interests now lie with the United States, Japan, and South Korea -- not North Korea. Moreover, Chun  argued, bare-knuckle PRC military intervention in a DPRK internal crisis could “strengthen the centrifugal forces in China’s minority areas.”...and Japan

The only obvious omission from this list I think I should mention is the accusation that the U.S. has made diplomatic and financial incentives to allies willing to hold Gitmo detainees.  While the accusation is covered extensively in other media (they all copy the same quotes from each other), I was not able to independently verify it from the cables provided by Wikileaks.  It is certainly a plausible scenario.  If you can provide this missing information, please email me.

Further Reading:
Wikileaks Fallout – DailyBeast
US Embasy Cables - Wikileaks

(Update 12/2/10: Fixed last quote and link)